Afghanistan

That the Taliban are once again in charge in Afghanistan was sadly and entirely predictable (paywalls). The US has never had core national interests in the Middle East, beyond the ideological and imperial interests that it took on during the post-Cold War moment. Even prior to the last announcement, the Taliban had been ready to consolidate every quarter the US conceded.

From 2021, the post-Cold War moment looks exactly like a moment. Years before 45 even took office, the American political establishment had already been commissioning research into US-China competition, albeit primarily in non-military domains to begin with. References to “revisionist states” in US defence & security-domain documents also pre-dated Trump, although references to China as a strategic competitor in such documents grew markedly more direct in 2017-2018.

I mention China, because the US withdrawal from Afghanistan at this time, just shy of twenty years since 9/11, is the final result of a country that only reliably makes decisions based on political expedience, rather than from a ‘realist’ consideration of national interest. (My first caveat is, that that’s most democracies. My second is that I think realism looks for what tends to be right in the end, as in this case.)

It feels almost cynical to frame the US’ withdrawal in terms of spin calculations, but what else is there, when the thing that has to be done is only just that?